Part 1 "The scientific basis": The report analyses the enormous body of observations of all parts of the climate system, concluding that this body of observations now gives a collective picture of a warming world. The report catalogues the increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and assesses the effects of these gases and atmospheric aerosols in altering the radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system. The report assesses the understanding of the processes that govern the climate system and by studying how well the new generation of climate models represent these processes, assesses the suitability of the models for projecting climate change into the future. A detailed study is made of human influence on climate and whether it can be identified with any more confidence than in , concluding that there is new and stronger evidence that most of the observed warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. Projections of future climate change are presented using a wide range of scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.

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Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate e. Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales [3].

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios.

The TAR estimate for the climate sensitivity is 1. The wide range in projections is based upon several different scenarios that assume different levels of future CO2 emissions see the section below on Projections in the TAR. Future warming will have both beneficial and adverse effects, but for higher levels of warming, adverse effects will predominate. Developing countries and poor persons are most vulnerable to climate change. Projections[ edit ] Projections are used in the TAR as a guide to the possible future effects of climate change, e.

The SRES scenarios project a wide range of possible changes in future social and economic development, [9] and projected climate change impacts vary according to the scenario considered. Perhaps the best known is Richard Lindzen , [19] professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Economic Affairs Select Committee is made up of members of the House of Lords , which scrutinizes and votes on government legislation.


Climate Change 2001 - IPCC Third Assessment Report

To be included in the database, four criteria had to be met. First, only scenarios published in the peer-reviewed literature could be considered, per IPCC protocol. Second, the scenario must contain a minimum set of required variables and some basic model and scenario documentation meta data must be provided. Third, only models with at least full energy system representation were considered given that specific sectoral studies were assessed in Chapters of the report.

LGB 12010 PDF

IPCC 第4次評価報告書

Research Institute of Organic Agriculture 1. Swiss Academy of Engineering Sciences 9. Education and Training Opportunities for young scientists and postdocs. Legal and Social sciences, Economics 8. LS2 Life Sciences Switzerland 2.


IPCC AR5 Scenarios Database


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